Today, India awaits when the clock ticks at 6.30 pm and Exit Polls will pop up across the nation.

While states including Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha are witnessing the nation's last poll today, news channels are ready with the Exit Polls.

An exit poll in an election refers to a survey conducted with voters right after they’ve left the polling stations.

However, Exit Polls seem to have failed in the prediction in the past elections.

In the 2022 Assembly elections of Gujarat, the Exit Polls depicted less than 150 seats out of 182 in BJP's bag. It turned out to be 156 for BJP, 17 for Congress, and 5 for AAP.

Similarly, while the Exit Polls during 2019 showed that BJP would win 25 out of 26 seats, it bagged a clean sweep winning on all the seats.

How Exit Polls are undertaken?

Exit polls essentially represent a type of survey conducted immediately after voting. The information gatherers ask voters which party or candidate they have voted for. Analysis of collected data provides an estimate of election results.

Exit polls in India trace back to 1957 with the Indian Institute of Public Opinion Pvt Ltd. It all began when Dr Prannoy Roy led surveys in 1980 and 1984, followed by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’s (CSDS) formal initiation in 1996.

Nalini Singh conducted polls for Doordarshan, with CSDS. Their accuracy, notably predicting BJP victories, influenced election dynamics.

After this the trend of Exit Polls escalated, further prompting private media houses and institutions to predict polling results in 1998.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Election Commission, with the help of the Ministry of Law, amended Section 126(6) of the Representation of the People Act. As a result, exit polls were banned before the last phase of polling was completed. The purpose of this amendment was to ensure that the election was not influenced in any way.

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