India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-average monsoon rains in the country this year in its ‘updated long range forecast outlook’ today, confirming its April forecast of a good monsoon.

“Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%. Thus above normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season from June to September 2024,” IMD said.

IMD has based the forecast of the good monsoon on the fact that the strong El Nino conditions which tend to disrupt the monsoon have weakened rapidly into weak El Nino conditions and are currently transitioning into ENSO-neutral conditions.

The latest climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to establish during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Nina conditions, which result in good rains, are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.

IMD has announced that this year the southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 31.

Heat wave across India

A heat wave will sweep across most of the states in the country in June, the IMD forecasted today. 

“Above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country in June, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely,” the IMD said.

Above-normal heat wave days are likely over most parts of northwest India and adjoining areas of central India during the next month, the IMD forecast states.

Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are also likely across most parts of the country in June, except for the extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely, the IMD said.

The IMD has also warned that during heat waves, vulnerable populations, like the elderly and those with health conditions, face risks of heat-related illnesses.

(This story was taken from a syndicated feed, and edited only for style by Gujarat Samachar Digital staff)

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