NASA: Asteroid 2024 YR4 now more likely to hit moon

A newly refined NASA analysis has slightly increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the moon in 2032, following new data from the James Webb Space Telescope.

Initially, asteroid 2024 YR4 was believed to pose a slight threat to Earth. However, further analysis has completely ruled out any impact risk to our planet in 2032 or the foreseeable future.

The chance of the asteroid hitting the moon on December 22, 2032, has increased from 3.8% to 4.3%, based on refined orbital calculations.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) gathered crucial data in May 2025 using its Near-Infrared Camera, enhancing orbital accuracy by nearly 20%.

Even if the asteroid strikes the moon, NASA scientists confirm it won’t affect the moon’s orbit or pose any danger to Earth.

The asteroid, currently out of observational range, will be studied again when it returns near Earth’s orbit in 2028.