US may see decline of 1.5 lakh international students in September intake, risking $7 billion in revenue

The United States may see a decline in enrolments of international students in universities this fall by as many as 1,50,000, that could cost the US higher education sector nearly $7 billion and threaten over 60,000 jobs.

A recent report by NAFSA, Association of International Educators and JB International revealed that recent actions such as visa bans and disruptions in visa interviews and processing could have a devastating effect on US local economies. 

An analysis of SEVIS and State Department data predicts a potential 30-40% decline in new international student enrollment, contributing to a 15 percent drop in overall enrollment this fall. Such an outcome would deprive local economies of $7 billion in spending and more than 60,000 jobs.

“This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall,” said Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. 

“The immediate economic losses projected here are just the tip of the iceberg. International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations. For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”

Factors driving the decline

Visa interview suspension: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, student visa interviews were paused during the peak issuance season for students seeking to enroll in a US institution this fall. As announced on June 18, the resumption of interviews carried a directive that U.S. consulates implement new social media vetting protocols within five days—with scant guidance provided. This vague and unnecessary administrative burden taxes a system that was already struggling with visa processing appointment scheduling delays.

Limited appointment availability: There are reports of limited or no appointments for international students at consulates in India, China, Nigeria, and Japan, among others. India and China are the top two international student-sending countries to the United States; Nigeria is seventh and Japan is 13th.

Downward visa trends: F-1 visa issuance is down 12% from January to April 2025 and down 22% in May 2025 compared to May 2024. June 2025 F-1 issuance data has not been published but a decrease of 80–90% is possible based on the factors identified here.

Visa bans: Restrictions targeting 19 countries as of a June 4, 2025, executive order, with another 36 rumored to be added, threaten $3 billion in annual contributions and more than 25,000 American jobs.

The bottom line: Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 1,50,000 fewer students may arrive this fall.