Trump administration cuts legal immigration more sharply than illegal entries: study

The administration of Donald Trump has reduced legal immigration at a significantly faster rate than illegal entries, with international students and high-skilled visa holders among the most affected, according to a recent analysis by David J Bier of the Cato Institute.

The report estimates that reductions in legal immigration flows are around 2.5 times greater than the decline in illegal immigration on a monthly basis. While illegal border crossings have continued an existing downward trend, legal immigration has seen a sharper, policy-driven contraction.

According to the analysis, legal migration channels, including student visas and skilled worker programmes such as the H-1B, have reversed the growth trajectory observed between 2021 and 2024.

International students, a key pillar of the US higher education system, are facing increased scrutiny and uncertainty. The report notes that tighter visa rules, delays in processing and concerns over post-study work opportunities have discouraged enrolment.

Policy measures cited include the revocation of between 1,700 and 4,500 F-1 student visas between January and April 2025, as well as temporary suspension of student visa issuance during peak periods. Additional restrictions, including visa bans affecting multiple countries, have further reduced inflows. Overall, student visa approvals declined by around 40% between the summer of 2024 and the summer of 2025.

Uncertainty surrounding pathways from education to employment, typically through Optional Practical Training and the H-1B visa, has also made the US a less predictable destination, prompting some students to consider alternatives such as Canada, the UK and Australia.

Universities are also expected to feel the impact, as international students contribute significantly through higher tuition fees and research output, particularly in science and technology fields.

High-skilled immigration has similarly come under pressure. The H-1B visa programme, widely used by Indian professionals in the technology sector, has been affected by stricter eligibility rules and rising costs. Proposals such as steep increases in visa fees could further reduce issuances and make hiring foreign talent more expensive for employers, the report noted.