Third Cyclone in a Month Brews Over Bay of Bengal; ‘Akvan’ Landfall Path Splits Between Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh
Summarized by AI; it may make mistakes. Check important info
Summarized by AI; it may make mistakes. Check important info
A well-marked low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Monday evening, keeping coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on alert as weather models diverge over its final landfall path.
If the system develops into a cyclone, it will be named Akvan—the third cyclonic storm to form in the basin since the Northeast Monsoon set in over Tamil Nadu in mid-October.
IMD Forecast and Trajectory
According to a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday, the weather system is projected to move northwestward and concentrate into a depression over the next 24 hours.
It is then expected to track north-northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the south and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal around the evening of November 16.
Competing Landfall Scenarios
For Andhra Pradesh—which has already weathered Cyclones Arnab and Murasu this season—a direct hit from Akvan would mark the first time since 1987 that the state has faced three cyclones within roughly 28 days. Conversely, a landfall in Tamil Nadu would bring the state its first cyclone of the ongoing Northeast Monsoon, which serves as its primary rainfall lifeline.
Independent weather bloggers point to sharp divergence across meteorological models, noting that clarity on whether the storm will target North Tamil Nadu, South Andhra Pradesh, or Central Andhra Pradesh will only emerge by Monday.
Ridges May Steer System Towards Tamil Nadu
Weather blogger K Srikanth noted that if the storm approaches Tamil Nadu, landfall is likely near Chennai and appears unlikely to track south of Mahabalipuram.
Meanwhile, blogger Hemachandran suggested that steering blockages from the Indo-Arabian and Indo-Pacific ridges could cause the system to stall or crawl over the southwest Bay of Bengal on November 16 and 17 before making a direct push towards the North Tamil Nadu coast between Ennore and Cuddalore on the night of November 19 or early November 20.
Echoing a similar view, blogger Ajith Kumar pointed out that a strong Arabian Ridge could act as a barrier restricting northward movement—a scenario backed by AI weather models consistently indicating a track towards Chennai or slightly further south.
