Super El Nino Forecast: India Could See 15,670 Additional Heat Deaths by February

India could record 15,670 additional heat-related deaths by February 2027 as the current super El Nino drives temperatures higher, according to climate scientists’ projections.

The estimate places India fourth among countries expected to face the highest number of additional heat deaths from the phenomenon. Globally, more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths are projected between June 2026 and February 2027.

India Among Worst-Hit Countries

Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of additional heat deaths at 31,320, followed by Indonesia with 19,251 and Sudan with 17,430. India follows with 15,670, while Brazil is projected to record 13,271 additional deaths.

The projections cover 24,378 regions worldwide and combine historical temperature and mortality data with forecasts for higher temperatures caused by El Nino.

Researchers compared the projections with average monthly heat deaths recorded between 1996 and 2025.

‘Mind-Blowing’ El Nino Raises Heat Risk

The current El Nino has already crossed the highest temperature recorded for the phenomenon, several months before its expected peak. Scientists have described its intensity as “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level”.

The researchers said the heat is occurring on top of temperatures already elevated by the climate crisis, increasing the risk of extreme heat across several regions.

Prof Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a University of Chicago professor, said the projected global toll of 451,000 deaths represents people across communities and families.

Heat Deaths Could Continue Beyond February

The current estimate covers June 2026 to February 2027, the period for which temperature forecasts are available. Researchers expect elevated levels of heat-related deaths to continue until June or July 2027.

The United States is projected to record about 3,500 additional heat deaths, while countries across the Sahel and south-east Asia are also expected to face significant impacts.

El Nino can also bring droughts, wildfires and flooding. The World Food Programme warned in August that its effects could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive food prices higher.

Researchers said measures such as improved heat forecasts, cooling centres, additional medical staffing during extreme heat and stronger protections for outdoor workers could help save lives.