Misinformation in India (img: Freepik)

As the world’s largest democracy readies itself for the Lok Sabha Elections this year, one of the major risks for India would be of false information, cautioned  a survey report by the World Economic Forum.

The report titled ‘Global Risk Report 2024’ brings forth insights on the evolving global risk  landscape from 1,490 experts across academia, business, government, the international community, and civil society.

It has ranked India as the country where the risk of disinformation and misinformation is ranked highest.

As per the report, the widespread use of misinformation and disinformation and the tools to disseminate it may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. 

The unrest created from the false information could lead to violent protests, hate crimes, civil confrontation, and even terrorism, says the report.

AI poses a risk

The accessibility of user-friendly interfaces to powerful artificial intelligence (AI) models has facilitated the manipulation of content, ranging from advanced voice cloning to deceptive websites. 

It will be difficult to decipher the AI-generated misinformation or disinformation content from the human-generated content.

The report states that the governments are responding to this growing threat by implementing evolving regulations targeting both disseminators and creators of online disinformation and illicit content.

In December 2023, the Indian government issued an advisory to all social media intermediaries, to ensure compliance with the existing IT rules and specifically target the growing concerns around misinformation powered by AI - deep fakes.

The advisory mandated that intermediaries communicate prohibited content, particularly those specified under Rule 3(1)(b) of the IT Rules, clearly and precisely to users.

Despite these regulatory initiatives, the pace and effectiveness of such measures are unlikely to keep up with the rapid development of synthetic content, according to the report.

It said that over the next two years, synthetic content may be used to manipulate individuals, harm economies, and create societal divisions. Falsified information may be employed for various purposes, spanning from climate activism to fueling conflicts. This surge in misinformation could give rise to new forms of crimes, such as non-consensual deepfake videos or manipulation of stock markets.

The spread of misinformation poses a threat to societal cohesion, yet there is a risk that some governments may respond slowly, grappling with the delicate balance between curbing misinformation and safeguarding free speech. In some cases, repressive governments might exploit enhanced regulatory control to undermine human rights.

The role of misinformation in elections

India is set to hold Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

The reach and volume of these technologies is unmatched, and on top of it, they are difficult to track and control. The capacity of social media platforms, according to the report, will be overcome by multiple overlapping campaigns. The identification of synthetic content will get tougher and tougher, and the disinformation will also be personalised for its recipients on platforms like WhatsApp and WeChat, according to the report.

The report states that not only for digitally literate people, the difference between human generated and AI-generated content is getting more and more difficult by the day even for the detection mechanisms. With a detection mechanism, the innovation is underfunded compared to the technology it is trying to tackle.

The report labels this misinformation as ‘emotively powerful’.

The risk is increased multifold by India, as 50% of its 1.4 bn population has internet access, heading into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Apart from politics, there is also a risk to global trade and financial markets. “State-backed campaigns could deteriorate interstate relations, by way of strengthened sanctions regimes, cyber offence operations with related spillover risks, and detention of individuals (including targeting primarily based on nationality, ethnicity and religion),” stated the report.

The executive opinion survey of the report also found infectious diseases, illicit economic activity, inequality (wealth, income), and labour shortage as pain points for India.

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