LS results: UP, Maharashtra, Odisha defy expectations

Updated: Jun 5th, 2024


Amid shattered dreams of ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ the ruling party, BJP, has seen remarkable defeats in many states. While in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and UP, the tables have turned for it. In Odisha, a new account has opened for the saffron party.

Understanding Maha dynamics

Maharashtra, one of the most politically dynamic states,  has yet again surprised the BJP-led alliance by voting against it and inclining towards the INDIA bloc.

Following the 2019 elections, Maharashtra’s political landscape saw the BJP emerge as the largest party but failed to secure a majority.

This led to a surprising alliance between the Indian National Congress (INC), Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), forming the ‘Maha Vikas Aghadi’ (MVA) government with Uddhav Thackeray as chief minister. 

On the other hand, the Mahayuti alliance is a political coalition among BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar).

Amid the race between MVA and Mahayuti in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti has won 17 seats in Maharashtra. The MVA, however, has turned Maharashtra politics on its head by securing 30 seats in total. 

The BJP, had contested from 28 seats, and has faced a major drubbing as it could win only 9 seats.

On the other hand, the Shiv Sena has bagged seven seats.

The NCP fought four seats but won one seat while the BJP ally Rashtriya Samaj Paksha lost Parbhani.

How SP and Congress turned into game changers in UP?

Often known as the fortress of PM Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh has opted for opposition over the ruling saffron party despite the Ram Mandir push.

The almost spectacular resurgence of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in UP was a result of a conscious effort made by both, Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, to make the alliance work. 

After their alliance turned out to be a fiasco in 2017, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi and SP president Akhilesh Yadav worked afresh on their strategy and made sure that they emerged as political game-changers on BJP’s turf in Uttar Pradesh.

In 2017, there was a visible discomfort in their relationship which percolated down to their respective cadres and made the alliance come a cropper.

After the initial hiccups over seat-sharing Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav made sure to campaign together and, more importantly, speak in one voice on all issues.

Both the leaders chose to ignore the barbs hurled at them by the BJP on issues like appeasement and nepotism. Not once during the campaign, did they respond to the allegations. They remained faithful to their narrative on unemployment, inflation and the Constitution.

The camaraderie that the two leaders displayed in public, worked as an adhesive for their cadres who finally decided to work together in elections.

Though SP changed candidates frequently at one point in time, Akhilesh Yadav made sure that it did not develop into a revolt of sorts. He also fortified his party in segments where his MLAs had crossed over to the BJP just ahead of the elections.

Did the Agniveer scheme impact BJP in UP?

Rahul Gandhi, on his part, did not allow a lack of party workers in the Congress to hamper his campaign. He did not bank on local leaders and managed things with help from his core group in Delhi.

More importantly, the two leaders did not react to issues like Ram temple and appeasement which could have communalised the entire campaign. Neither did they go overboard with their PDA -- Pichhda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak formula -- but addressed a broader segment of unemployed youth, BPL families and Agniveers that cut across caste lines.

“In 2017, there was a visible strain in the relationship between the two parties and we sensed it but this time, Rahul and Akhilesh got along like the proverbial house on fire. We hope that the bonhomie continues till the next Assembly polls in 2027,” said a senior SP functionary.

The BJP’s downfall in UP was at such a point that it even snatched Union Minister Smriti Irani’s pride- Amethi constituency.

In UP, 37 seats were secured by SP, while Congress secured six, taking INDIA bloc to 43 seats against BJP’s 33.

BJP breaks Odisha’s 24-year-long Odyssey

The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has suffered the first poll defeat since its formation after splitting away from the erstwhile Janata Dal in 1997. The party remained invincible for over two decades after coming to power riding on the popularity of Biju Patnaik in the 2000 Assembly elections. 

BJD President and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik ruled the state for 24 years earning the honour of the second longest-serving chief minister in India. However, the party’s former alliance partner, BJP has put a break to its winning streak with a thumping win in the 2024 Assembly elections.

As per the political observers, among other major factors that led to the defeat of the ruling BJD in the state include an aggressive campaign by the BJP over Odia Asmita (Odia self-identity), Non-Odia successor to Chief Minister Patnaik, in a reference to Tamil Nadu-born BJD leader VK Pandian and the health condition of 77-year-old Patnaik.

After the alliance talks failed to materialise, the BJP immediately resorted to an aggressive campaign with the party heavyweights from across the country making a beeline to the state. The campaign was led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi who launched scathing attacks on the BJD government on various issues.

The BJP attacked Patnaik’s close aide Pandian by accusing him of using Patnaik in the poll campaign despite his poor health conditions.

The party accused Pandian of ruling the state as a proxy by holding a frail CM Patnaik hostage.

Tamil Nadu-born Pandian was at the centre of an aggressive poll campaign by the BJP.

It also raised the issue that Pandian, a former bureaucrat, would take over the reins of the party as well as the government after winning elections in 2024, which is a threat to the self-identity and pride of Odisha.

The BJP put all its efforts into convincing the voters about an impending threat to Odia culture, language, literature, and Odia Asmita following the takeover of BJD's leadership by Pandian post-BJD victory in the 2024 elections.

The poll results suggest that the BJP has succeeded in convincing the voters regarding the probable takeover of the government in Odisha by non-Odia Pandian and the alleged threat to Odia Asmita.

The BJP also raised other issues such as the “mismanagement” in Shree Jagannath Temple -- the “missing keys” of Ratna Bhandar (treasure of the 12th-century shrine), and migration of labourers to other states played a major role in the defeat of an “invincible” BJD.

Another factor that led to BJD’s defeat was the failure on the part of the party to create a strong and able second-rung of leadership.

The BJP secured 20 seats in Odisha, Congress opened account with one, and nothing was left for BJD.

Rajasthan

The BJP, which won all 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan in 2019, suffered a major setback as it could win only 14 seats in the state this time, losing 11 to the Congress-led INDIA bloc. 

Union Ministers Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Bhupendra Yadav and Arjun Ram Meghwal won from their respective seats while Kailash Chaudhary lost from Barmer.

Former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav Gehlot lost from Jalore.

In Rajasthan’s Banswara Lok Sabha constituency, the winner was decided by a wide margin of votes. Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) candidate Raj Kumar Roat defeated six-time MLA and BJP candidate Mahendrajeetsingh Malviya by 3,13,172 votes.

Malviya was a veteran Congress leader before the party’s influential tribal face, joined the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Even though another candidate named Rajkumar was deployed, Roat won by a significant margin.

In Kota, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla won although his margin was reduced. He was fielded against Prahlad Gunjal, an ex-BJP leader who joined Congress after being denied the ticket.

(With inputs from syndicated feed)

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