Monsoon arrivers early for Kerala after 16 years

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala on Saturday, ditching the usual date of June 1. 

This marks the first time in 16 years that the monsoon has arrived early in Kerala. Heavy rainfall is predicted over the next seven days.

“Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala today, May 24, 2025, against the normal date of June 1. Thus, Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala eight days before the normal date. This is the earliest date of monsoon onset over Kerala after the year 2009 when it was set over Kerala on May 23, 2009,” said IMD on Saturday.

Earlier, in 1918, the monsoon had arrived even earlier—on May 11. On the other hand, the latest monsoon onset was recorded in 1972, when the first rains began on June 18. Over the last 25 years, the latest arrival was in 2016.

According to the IMD forecast, the monsoon was expected to arrive around the May 27 deadline, with a model error margin of about four days. Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 30. The timely arrival of the monsoon is crucial for India, as approximately 70% of the country’s annual rainfall occurs during the June–September period.

Monsoon rains are vital for irrigation, groundwater recharge, and refilling reservoirs, directly impacting agricultural output and the rural economy. IMD has predicted above-average rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, raising expectations of record crop yields during the Kharif season. 

Higher production could increase rural incomes, boost food security, and enhance the agricultural sector’s contribution to India’s economic growth. Early rains are expected to support the sowing of crops like rice, maize, cotton, soybeans, and oilseeds and raise water levels in reservoirs before the Rabi season.

Low-pressure system forms over east-central Arabian Sea

The Southwest monsoon has further advanced into parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of west central and east central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Mahe, some parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; many parts of Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of southwest and east central Bay of Bengal, some parts of west central and north Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Mizoram on Saturday.

Simultaneously, a low-pressure weather system has been identified over the east-central Arabian Sea off the southern Konkan-Goa coast. This system may strengthen and move northward over the next 36 hours, potentially affecting local weather patterns, including rainfall and wind shifts along the western coast.

In northern Indian states, IMD has forecast the monsoon to arrive between June 25 and 30. This region typically experiences slightly later seasonal changes than southern and central India. In western India, monsoon rains are expected between June 15 and 20.