How a 0.7% dip in vote share slashed 63 seats from BJP kitty

As the Election Commission of India (ECI) released the numbers of the Lok Sabha election 2024 results on June 4, an anticipated majority boosted by the Exit Polls had shrunk significantly for the BJP.

Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc, that went all guns blazing on unemployment, price rise and money to the poor, secured a significant number of seats across several states.

BJP loses seats over a minor vote share dip

BJP, emerging as the single-largest party in the general elections for the third consecutive term, managed to win 240 seats.

The party achieved clean sweeps in several states including Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, and showed a dominance of the party in others.

Overall, their electoral vote share shrunk to 36.56%. However, this figure is a mere 0.7% lower than their previous term’s 37.3% in 2019, when the BJP solely secured 303 seats.

Just a difference of 0.7% gave the saffron party a substantial blow of 63 seats, that fell into the opposition’s kitty.

For instance, the vote share of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh remained a staggering 41.37%, which translated to 33 seats for the party.

Against which, the INDIA bloc parties, Samajwadi Party and Congress, received 33.59% votes and 9.46% respectively. Despite lagging behind the BJP, both parties managed to win 37 and 6 seats respectively.

The third front in UP, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), also garnered 9.39% of the vote share, but the party failed to even open its account in the state.

The reason behind this could be speculated as a higher vote share seldom resulting in more seats. Several constituency dynamics house vast voter numbers, requiring a candidate to secure votes in several lakhs to emerge victorious in the seat.

Despite BJP and BSP candidates securing votes in massive numbers, the parties fell short against the Congress and Samajwadi Party candidates.

For instance, in Hamirpur, where SP’s Ajendra Lodhi emerged victorious by receiving more than 4.90 lakh votes, BJP’s Kunwar Pushpendra Singh trailed merely 2,629 votes behind at 4.88 lakh votes. This registered a decent vote share for the BJP in the Hamirpur constituency despite their loss.

Maths of Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, where the BJP and its alliances garnered 42 seats with a 50.9% vote share in 2019, was reduced to 17 seats despite a vote share of 42.80%.

Notably, the BJP ended as the runner-up in six out of the 10 constituencies with the lowest margin of victory. This pushed the party’s vote share to a healthy number but did not translate to enough seats.

On the contrary, the Shiv Sena (UBT), despite gaining a vote share of a mere 16.72%, secured as many seats as the BJP, which recorded a vote share of 26.18%.