India Braces for Drier July After Third-Driest June in 100 Years
Summarized by AI; it may make mistakes. Check important info
Summarized by AI; it may make mistakes. Check important info
India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast, after June emerged as the third-driest June in the last 100 years, raising concerns over the progress of the southwest monsoon.
June Ends With Massive Rainfall Deficit
The IMD had forecast June rainfall at less than 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). However, the country ultimately recorded a 39.8% rainfall deficit.
India received only 92.2 mm of rainfall during June against the normal 157.7 mm. Even with rainfall on the final day of the month, total June rainfall was expected to reach only around 100 mm.
According to historical data (1927–2026), only 2009 (87.5 mm) and 2014 (92.1 mm) recorded lower June rainfall, making June 2026 the third-driest June in the last 100 years, as per reports.
July Forecast
- Rainfall across India is expected to remain below normal, at less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- The July LPA (1971–2020) is 280.4 mm.
- Maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across most parts of the country.
Kharif Sowing Falls Nearly 23%
The weak monsoon has already impacted agriculture, with total kharif sowing declining 22.7% compared to last year.
Agriculture Ministry data shows total kharif acreage has dropped to 1.82 crore hectares, down from 2.36 crore hectares a year ago.
Major crops have reported lower sowing:
- Paddy: Down 25.2%
- Total pulses: Down 30.5%
- Total coarse cereals: Down 11.7%
- Total oilseeds: Down 53.3%
- Cotton: Down 34.6%
Only sugarcane (+1.18%) and jute (+1.96%) recorded an increase in acreage.
Impact on Agriculture and Water
The IMD warned that below-normal rainfall could affect:
- Agricultural production
- Water availability
- Hydroelectric power generation
- Ecosystem stability
It may also increase the risk of drought-like conditions, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources. Authorities have been advised to focus on water conservation, efficient resource management and agricultural contingency planning.
El Niño Signals Strengthening
Weak El Niño conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during the southwest monsoon season, according to the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global models.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and is expected to stay neutral through the monsoon.
Meanwhile, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has indicated the current El Niño could strengthen further. Ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have risen to around 1.24°C above normal, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fallen sharply into negative territory, indicating weakening trade winds that influence global weather patterns.
