With Iran set to hold snap polls on June 28 to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, a three-way race - heading into a run-off - is likely, as per various surveys, though they differ on the positioning of the top three candidates.

Meanwhile, authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

The turnout in the 2021 elections - which Raisi won - was 48.8% - the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It further declined to around 41% in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year.

Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the prevention of a large number of reformists. Mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, barred from the presidential race, also do not pass vetting.

The predictions of the likely turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those by emigres, who do not enjoy the best of relations with the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout would be recorded this time, those by in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, report a slight bump up.

Political dynamics in Iran

They also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps with this in mind, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on June 25 called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

A day before the election, five of the six approved candidates, pegged as four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and reformist, were in the race. Like previous some pervious instances, one of the hardline candidates - Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi - dropping out and urging others to do so to coalesce support between one strong (hardline) candidate.

However, Hashemi, whose withdrawal was announced on the eve of polls, did not indicate any choice of candidate.

The other two - Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and celeriac and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi - do not figure much in the calculus.

However, the surveys rate the chances of the top three quite differently, as per reports.

Iran election analysis

The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on June 26 last week, has forecast a turnout of over 50%, placing Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second - less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.

However, its update on June 24 had Pezeshkian now leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30% mark, indicating a run-off.

Meta, a polling organisation in the Imam Sadeq University in Tehran, in its survey published last week, had forecast just over 50% turnout, with Pezeshkian ahead - but over Qalibaf, while Jalili was in third place.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. And then, it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.

(This story was taken from a syndicated feed, and edited only for style by Gujarat Samachar Digital staff)

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