10 Days to a 100% Tariff: Trump Ultimatum Shadows Goyal’s ‘Finalised’ India-US Trade Deal

India and the United States have finalized the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement, even as New Delhi faces the threat of punitive 100% tariffs from Washington over its continued procurement of Russian crude oil.

Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal confirmed on Thursday that negotiators from both nations have locked the initial tranche of the economic pact, which has now entered the legal drafting stage. However, the diplomatic momentum coincides with disclosures from US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, who revealed that President Donald Trump will decide within roughly 10 days whether to invoke new legislative authority that penalises major importers of Russian energy.

Legal Drafting Begins for Initial Economic Tranche

Speaking at an industry conference in New Delhi, Goyal stated that negotiators have finalized core terms for the first portion of the bilateral deal, moving the agreement into formal legal codification.

"US bilateral trade agreement's first tranche has been finalised and it is going through final contours, the legal drafting, and we hope to be able to finalise that soon and operationalise that once we get the competitive advantage over our peer countries," Goyal said.

The minister emphasised that protective mechanisms for domestic industries remain intact within the draft, ensuring that sensitive sectors are shielded while Indian exporters secure improved access to American commercial channels.

Looming 10-Day Tariff Window Under US Sanctions Law

The progress on legal text coincides with remarks by Ambassador Gor at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi regarding the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (SRIA). Signed into law on 18 September after passing the US Senate with an 86-vote bipartisan majority, the legislation grants the US President statutory authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on nations purchasing Russian energy.

Speaking during an interactive session at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi, Gor explained that the law gives the US President the authority to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian crude oil. He noted that under the 30-day statutory timeline following the bill's passage, President Trump has roughly 10 days left to make an official determination regarding waivers, exemptions, or tariff applications.

Policy Contradictions Over Russian Fuel Purchases

The prospect of US tariffs on Indian imports has drawn attention to shifting energy policies in Washington. On 9 October, Trump announced on social media that the US had finalized a direct commercial arrangement with Moscow for Russia to supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the American market, alongside an additional 1.5 million tonnes scheduled over subsequent months to manage domestic fuel costs.

Responding to queries regarding American commercial diesel purchases from Russia alongside warnings to New Delhi, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that India has communicated its concerns to Washington over SRIA while maintaining its commitment to global energy stability. Trade analysts note the policy contrast between Washington pursuing direct Russian refined fuel imports to stabilize domestic prices and threatening tariffs against allies purchasing Russian crude.

Negotiators Seek Parallel Resolution Before Year-End

Despite the parallel regulatory clock under SRIA, US officials maintain that bilateral economic integration remains a priority. Ambassador Gor indicated that the broader structural framework of the trade deal is largely completed, with negotiators working through long-standing market access issues spanning agricultural commodities, industrial tariffs, and high-tech supply chains.