Monsoon update: all eyes on Bay of Bengal for rain god

After a timely arrival with a bang, the progress of the monsoon has stalled. Experts believe monsoon progress will revive around June 22 or 23 if there is a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. 

The southwest monsoon started with a bang in Kerala, but its forward journey has now hit a major roadblock. Because of this, millions of people across central and western India are stuck in extreme heat, waiting for some relief from the skies. Right now, big states like Maharashtra and Gujarat have no cloud cover at all, leading to a massive shortage of rain.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and weather experts, the monsoon has paused because there are no active weather disturbances to push it forward.

Mahesh Palwat, the chief meteorologist at Skymet, explained that the monsoon heavily depends on a low-pressure area forming over the Bay of Bengal. In a normal year, these systems act like powerful "atmospheric engines". They create a vacuum effect that pulls heavy, moisture-laden clouds deep into the Indian mainland.

Right now, a tug-of-war with westerly winds from mid-latitudes is stopping these low-pressure systems from forming. Without this trigger, the monsoon is too weak to move on its own.

The "Dual Action" formula needed for relief

To break this June pause, a low-pressure system must develop over the Bay of Bengal. Once it forms, its strong spinning motion will create a vital “dual action”:

Pushing the East: It will push the eastern branch of the monsoon further inland.

Pulling the West: More importantly, it will strongly pull the monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea towards the land.

The Final Result: This powerful pull will force heavy, moisture-rich winds to crash directly into the Western Ghats mountains, bringing desperately needed, continuous rain to the dry West Coast.

For now, farmers and weather scientists are keeping a close eye on the Bay of Bengal. The birth of this low-pressure system is the only real key to bringing back India’s life-giving rains.