Gujarat among worst-hit states as India records 38% monsoon rainfall deficit

Gujarat is among the states witnessing a significant rainfall deficit as India recorded a 38% shortfall in monsoon rainfall between June 1 and June 17.

With the Southwest Monsoon remaining weak for nearly two weeks, several parts of Gujarat have reportedly received 70-80% less rainfall than normal, raising concerns over agriculture and water availability.

The monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, slightly later than usual, and initially advanced at a steady pace. However, its progress slowed considerably thereafter, leaving large parts of the country without the expected rainfall by mid-June. Under normal conditions, nearly half of India is covered by monsoon rains during this period.

Central India has been the worst-affected region, recording a rainfall deficit of 62%. States including Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Gujarat have also reported substantial shortfalls, with some areas receiving 70 to 80% less rainfall than normal. Eastern and northeastern regions have likewise experienced below-average precipitation.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), northwest India has received near-normal or slightly above-normal rainfall. However, this has largely been attributed to Western Disturbances rather than the Southwest Monsoon.

The IMD has indicated that conditions may begin improving after June 23, when monsoon winds are expected to advance further into eastern India, including Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Weather experts attribute the weak monsoon to a combination of global and regional factors. These include the return of El Niño conditions, a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), frequent Western Disturbances, a weak Somali Jet and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

According to experts, these factors have collectively reduced cloud formation and slowed rainfall activity across much of the country.