India slips to 6th largest economy in 2025: IMF

India has slipped to sixth place in the global economy rankings in 2025, falling one spot from last year despite continuing to register one of the strongest growth rates among major nations, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates.

The IMF has pegged India’s economy at $3.92 trillion for 2025, placing it behind the United Kingdom at $4 trillion and Japan at $4.44 trillion. The United States remains the world’s largest economy at $30.8 trillion, followed by China at $19.6 trillion and Germany at $4.7 trillion. In 2024, India had ranked fifth with a GDP of $3.5 trillion, ahead of the UK’s $3.4 trillion.

The decline in ranking comes even as India recorded nearly 9% nominal growth in rupee terms during the year. However, the strengthening US dollar and downward revisions in GDP calculations under the revised data series have slowed India’s rise when measured in dollar terms.

Since global rankings are based on dollar-denominated GDP, the rupee’s depreciation has had a direct impact on India’s position. IMF projections indicate the rupee may weaken from around 84.6 against the dollar in 2024 to 88.5 in 2025, with further gradual depreciation expected in the coming years.

India is likely to remain in sixth place in 2026 as well, before climbing back up the ladder. IMF forecasts suggest India will overtake the UK in 2027 to become the fourth-largest economy, with GDP expected to rise to $4.58 trillion against Britain’s projected $4.47 trillion.

The country is then projected to move past Japan in 2028, when India’s economy is estimated at $5.06 trillion compared to Japan’s $4.74 trillion. That would make India the world’s third-largest economy in nominal GDP terms, although the revised IMF trajectory indicates India may establish a clear lead in third place only by 2031, when its GDP is expected to reach $6.79 trillion, comfortably ahead of Japan’s $5.13 trillion.

The slower climb in rankings is largely due to exchange-rate pressures. While India’s economy continues to expand strongly in real terms, the rupee’s steady decline against the dollar has diluted the gains in nominal dollar value.

IMF figures show India’s GDP rising from ₹318 trillion in 2024 to ₹346.5 trillion in 2025, but the increase appears less pronounced after currency conversion.

Despite slipping one rank, India remains the fastest-growing major economy globally and is among the few large nations expected to sustain growth above 6% over the medium term. By 2030, India’s GDP is projected to reach $6.17 trillion, narrowing the gap with Germany before firmly entering the world’s top three economies in the following years.

The US is expected to retain the top position with a projected economy size of $39 trillion by then, while China is forecast at $27.5 trillion.