The double-engine development model of Gujarat, hailed by many, may also be an epicentre of socio-economic disparity, suggests a new study. 

Considering the areas of social welfare such as health, poverty reduction, and education, the state is more closely placed to Bihar than it is to Tamil Nadu, suggested the research paper by Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist and author.

The research paper titled ‘India: The Challenge of Contrasted Regional Dynamics’ co-authored by Vignesh Rajahmani and Neal Bharadwaj and published by Institut Montaigne, noted that “although Gujarat is wealthy, it lags in terms of public spending progression: while it spends more than Bihar (€1.16 billion vs €0.90 billion in 2019–20), its healthcare expenditure grew by only 10.5 % between 2012–13 and 2019–20, compared with 29.5 % in Bihar. In Tamil Nadu, where the increase was 20.5 %, twice as much as in Gujarat, healthcare expenditure is more than 25% higher.”

Education

When it came to free midday meals, in 2017–18, Tamil Nadu served a free midday meal in 85.4% of secondary schools, while it was 11% for Gujarat.

Further, the paper also states, “Bihar has been handicapped by the quasi-feudal order inherited from the colonial era and by a rather rigid caste system. In Gujarat, the caste system has also favoured inequalities, but very enterprising trading groups prepared the ground for economic dynamism. In Tamil Nadu, the rise of plebeians dislodged the conservative upper caste from power over the twentieth century.

“However, over the last few decades, the diverging trajectories of the three states have had much to do with the policies of their governments. While Gujarat is known for its emphasis on infrastructure (energy, transport, etc.), Tamil Nadu has invested more in human capital (healthcare, education), while Bihar, constrained by limited resources, has largely been unable to prioritise either.”

Health

In terms of health, the paper noted that according to RBI data for 2020, the infant mortality rate of Tamil Nadu was 13 per 1000 infants, which stood at 23 for Gujarat and 27 for Bihar.

Social spending

According to the study, Bihar has allocated a higher share of its GSDP to social spending, reaching 22.25 % in 2021–22. In contrast, Gujarat has its figures stagnating around 4.46 % in 2021–22. Tamil Nadu, on the other hand, maintained expenditure between 4.90 % and 6.01 % during the same period.

Future: Gujarat, TN, Bihar in 2050

The report projects that Tamil Nadu will completely eradicate poverty by 2037 (less than 1% population below the poverty line), and Gujarat will reach there in 2050. It also suggests that in 2050, 6% of Bihar will still be living under the poverty line in 2050.

Positives?

The study notes that ‘while Tamil Nadu has invested in human resources (education and health in particular), Gujarat has focused on infrastructure (energy and transport). This explains why the state has a power generation capacity of 45,913 megawatts, compared with 37,514 for Tamil Nadu (and only 7,555 for Bihar)’.

As a result, the per capita electricity supply stands at 2,288.3 kWh in Gujarat, 1,588.7 kWh in Tamil Nadu, and only 373.4 kWh in Bihar, as per the study.

This is further cemented by Gujarat having almost 25% fewer factories than Tamil Nadu, but having an industrial output of 18% of the Indian total, whereas Tamil Nadu accounts for only 10%, as noted by the report. 

The study notes that this is because Tamil Nadu relies more on SMEs, while Gujarat is for energy and petrochemical hub, thanks to ‘favourable policies from the Union government and targeted initiatives such as GIFT City’.